An Analysis of the Decision to File, the Dumping Estimates, and the Outcome of Antidumping Petitions
1 June 2000
By Dr. Faten Sabry
The goal of this article is to identify industries filing successful petitions in good times according to demand, capacity utilization, concentration, and import-penetration ratio under the U.S. antidumping procedures and using U.S. data. Good times means that the domestic industry is facing increasing consumption prior to filing. This article examines:
(a) the relation between the dumping estimates and the conditions facing the petitioning industry prior to filing;
(b) the relation between the dumping estimates and the outcome of the petitions; and
(c) the factors affecting the probability of filing, the dumping estimates, and the probability of success of a petition.
The decision to file and the probability of success of petitions are estimated using univariate probit and a bivariate probit model with sample selection. The dumping estimates are analyzed using a Tobit model. The primary metal products and the stone and concrete industries are also analyzed separately. The empirical analysis indicates that the import-penetration ratio, capacity utilization, and the dumping estimates by the Department of Commerce (DOC) are the significant factors in explaining the outcome of petitions. The import penetration ratio, the concentration level, and the interaction of concentration and capacity utilization are the significant factors in explaining the decision to file.
The analysis shows that in case of high-capacity utilization (proxy for high demand), less concentrated industries are more likely to receive protection. The results also show that the level of concentration in the petitioning industry, import-penetration, and the dumping estimates provided by the petitioning industries explain the dumping margins – estimated by the DOC as the basis for the antidumping duty. This suggests that the relief or protection that the petitioning industry receives may not entirely be based on technical standards.
This article was published in the International Trade Journal, Volume XIV, No. 2, Summer 2000.
