Disraeli Would Have Loved Employment Discrimination Cases
1 November 2000
By Dr. Christopher Erath
To Benjamin Disraeli Mark Twain attributed the famous quote that there are three kinds of lies in the world -- lies, damned lies, and statistics. This paper draws upon recent examples in NERA's practice of statistics that at first may seem consistent with an allegation of employment discrimination but when examined more closely actually are consistent with its absence. Three primary topics are discussed. First, an example of the fallacy of composition demonstrates how examination of statistics at too aggregate a level can produce the illusion of a disparate impact even from an entirely race (or gender or age) neutral process. Second, regression analysis, while commonly advanced as a panacea for statistical problems involving multiple factors, can also yield erroneous results if applied without regard to the specifics of the underlying situation. Third, the paper discusses the use of simulation techniques and points out how such a technique enabled NERA to defeat on summary judgment a statistical analysis which relied on seemingly complex methodology.
