Patterns in Global Fixed and Mobile Telecommunications Development: A Cluster Analysis
1 March 2004
By Dr. Agustin Ros and former NERA Vice President Dr. Aniruddha Banerjee
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) estimates that, in 2002, the number of mobile cellular subscribers (over 1.15 billion worldwide) surpassed the number of fixed main lines in service (nearly 1.13 billion worldwide) for the first time. This gap is forecast to widen in the future, with fast-growing mobile telecommunications services now available almost ubiquitously. Yet, in 1991, there were only 16 million mobile cellular subscribers and 546 million fixed main lines worldwide.
In this article, NERA Vice President Dr. Agustin Ros and former Vice President Dr. Aniruddha Banerjee attempt to identify what factors account for the phenomenal explosion of mobile telephony in a little more than a decade. The authors perform a cluster analysis of 61 countries with respect to the levels and growth rates of teledensity (fixed main lines per 100 inhabitants) and cellular density (mobile cellular subscribers per 100 inhabitants). Among their findings, they discover that not only has mobile subscribership caught up with fixed main lines worldwide, but some countries (and regions) appear to have deliberately pursued policies and strategies to develop mobile telephony as fast as possible.
This is the first in a series of inquiries into the drivers of demand growth globally for both fixed and mobile telephony. The ultimate goal is to understand how the interplay of stage of economic development, quality of incumbent fixed networks and market and regulatory structures has influenced the course of mobile telephony in different regions of the world.
This article was published in Telecommunications Policy, Volume 28, Issue 2, March 2004, (c) Copyright 2004 Elsevier Science.
