Product Liability and Mass Torts

Claim Forecasting

Claim Forecasting

Product liability and mass tort projects frequently involve estimating the number and value of claims likely to be brought in the future against a defendant, as well as valuing claims that are already pending.

Combining scientific analysis with behavioral economics, NERA experts have developed rigorous models to forecast product liabilities. To forecast claims filings, we estimate the size of the population potentially exposed to a company’s product; predict levels of valid diseases or the most likely pattern of product defects; and project the number of claims filed by those affected by the exposure. Because not every injury or product defect will result in a claim, we examine historical claiming rates and assess how those rates may change in the future, e.g., with publicity, increased entrepreneurial tactics by plaintiffs attorneys, or tort reforms. To value the future claims, we uses statistical analysis to understand the drivers of the historical settlements, as well as how they might be expected to change going forward (with, for example, the aging of the claimant population).
 
Among other applications, NERA experts use such forecasts to establish the size of bankruptcy trusts, assess the value of insurance coverage, or help companies establish financial reserves. We frequently discuss and support the results with the companies’ auditors. We have provided analysis as part of the due diligence process for potential mergers and acquisitions--assessing existing liability estimates as well as providing projections that may include upper and lower bounds in addition to a “best estimate.” We have also helped clients evaluate potential changes to their litigation strategy by modeling the costs and benefits of alternative strategies and the anticipated impact on claim filings and settlement values.

Name Title Location Phone Email
Lucy P. Allen Managing Director New York City +1 212 345 5913 lucy.allen@nera.com
Dr. Denise Neumann Martin Managing Director New York City +1 212 345 5296 denise.martin@nera.com
Dr. Faten Sabry Managing Director
Bankruptcy Practice Chair
New York City
London
+1 212 345 3285
+44 20 7659 8618
faten.sabry@nera.com
Dr. Kent Van Liere Managing Director Denver
San Francisco
+1 303 357 4782
+1 415 291 1010
kent.van.liere@nera.com
Mary Elizabeth C. Stern Director White Plains, NY +1 914 448 4054 mary.elizabeth.stern@nera.com
Drew Claxton Associate Director New York City +1 212 345 3442 drew.claxton@nera.com
Timothy McKenna Associate Director New York City +1 212 345 5503 timothy.mckenna@nera.com
Dr. Stephanie Plancich Associate Director New York City +1 212 345 7719 stephanie.plancich@nera.com
Title Type Author
Snapshot of Recent Trends in Asbestos Litigation: 2017 Update Report Mary Elizabeth C. Stern and Lucy P. Allen
Asbestos: Economic Assessment of Bans and Declining Production and Consumption Report By Lucy P. Allen, Mary Elizabeth C. Stern, Jorge Baez, and Frank George
Snapshot of Recent Trends in Asbestos Litigation: 2014 Update Report By Mary Elizabeth C. Stern and Lucy P. Allen
The Propensity to Sue: Why Do People Seek Legal Actions? Study By Dr. Faten Sabry with former NERA Senior Vice President Dr. Fred Dunbar
Forecasting Claims in an Era of Tort Reform Published Article By Dr. Faten Sabry and former NERA Senior Vice President Dr. Fred Dunbar
Clearing Uninjured Plaintiffs From The Tort System: The Road To A Solution Published Article By Dr. Denise Martin with former NERA Senior Vice President Dr. Fred Dunbar
Materiality and Magnitude: Event Studies in the Courtroom Working Paper Dr. David Tabak with former NERA Senior Vice President Dr. Fred Dunbar
Estimating Future Claims - Case Studies from Mass Tort and Product Liability Book By Dr. Denise Martin et al.
Estimating Future Asbestos Claims: Lessons from the National Gypsum Litigation Brief By Dr. Denise Martin with former NERA Senior Vice President Dr. Fred Dunbar