Transport

NERA Economic Consulting (NERA) has strong capabilities within and across geographies to help businesses in the automotive industry confront multi-faceted regulatory, legal, and business reputational threats. NERA’s pertinent economic areas (non-compliance and environmental regulation, consumer product liability class actions, securities class actions, and white collar investigations), uniquely position us to provide internationally coordinated economic assistance in response to corporations facing complex and global matters.

NERA has more than three decades experience in evaluating mobile source emissions and fuel efficiency, including developing analyses on behalf of motor vehicle manufacturers in numerous non-compliance enforcement matters.  NERA’s enforcement engagements in the US have included developing analyses and testifying on behalf of US and foreign automobile and truck manufacturers in proceedings before the EPA and the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

NERA’s work related to alleged vehicle non-compliance has generally been confidential and therefore we are unable to list the specific projects by name. The analyses in these matters have considered the potential impacts of alleged non-compliance on manufacturers, customers and the environment. NERA’s analyses have been used by manufacturers in discussions with the EPA and CARB regarding potential penalties for non-compliance.

NERA’s work with non-compliance penalties builds upon our state-of-the-art modeling of automobile and truck markets including: Nested-logit models to estimate new vehicle market demand, an econometric model to evaluate impacts on vehicle scrappage rates, a fleet population model to estimate the effects of changes in new vehicle sales and scrappage on overall vehicle populations over time, as well as an econometric model of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) to assess the potential “rebound effect” of changes in fuel efficiency on VMT. The development of these empirical models has involved the creation of an extensive data base on new motor vehicle prices, characteristics and sales. NERA has developed these models working closely with experts in automotive technology, emissions modeling, air quality modeling and public health. These analyses have been used to develop estimates of the value that consumers place on fuel efficiency, horsepower and other vehicle characteristics, as well as on the potential impacts of environmental and fuel economy regulations on the environment, consumers and the economy. The results of these analyses have been presented to US regulatory agencies, the US Office of Management and Budget (OMB), other White House organizations, and to the media.

NERA has used these and other tools to develop analyses and expert testimony for many major mobile source air emission and fuel economy regulations over the past three decades. Our clients have included individual manufacturers as well as trade associations. These projects include the following:  CARB Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulations, including numerous modifications;  EPA regulation of emissions from all-terrain vehicles (ATVs); CARB regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from motor vehicles; Numerous other state regulations of GHG emissions from motor vehicles based on CARB standards;  Litigation related to CARB and other state GHG regulations;  EPA regulation of GHG emissions from new vehicles; National Highway Transportation and Safety Administration (NHTSA) regulation of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards; EPA regulation of conventional emissions from heavy-duty trucks, including major standards for 2007 and 2010; and EPA regulation of GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks.

NERA also has relevant experience related to air quality, motor vehicle emissions, and consumer choices in Europe. This experience includes: NERA developed, for the French Ministry of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Spatial Planning (MEEDDAT), an econometric model of vehicle choice, based on a large sample of individual household data. The model assessed the implications of differences in vehicle excise (registration) taxes on low-emitting vehicles based on consumer preferences for environmental and other characteristics, as well as price.  For a major multilateral development bank, NERA reviewed the estimated externality costs (e.g. health impacts) of NOx, SO2, and particulate emissions from stationary and mobile sources across the EU and wider European area, and their relationship to population density and per capita GDP. NERA developed econometric models to estimate and simulate vehicle choices in the United Kingdom. NERA conducted economy-wide studies of fuel consumption and associated emissions from vehicles assuming different regulatory requirements and policies.