Transport

Modeling and Forecasting

Modeling and Forecasting

NERA regularly undertakes modeling and forecasting in a wide range of contexts across the transport sector. We have extensive experience in financial modeling and profitability analysis, demand and revenue forecasting, and transport cost modeling. Our experts have worked for governments, regulators and transport operators across the aviation, rail, and road transport industries.

Our experience includes:

  • Financial modeling. We have carried out detailed financial modeling in many different contexts, for example in airport regulation, business valuation, and evaluating the impact of different risk allocations. We also construct bespoke, regulatory financial models that can assist clients in assessing the implications of regulatory proposals, and making effective representations.
  • Profitability analysis. NERA advises on a wide variety of profitability issues, including the economic definition of profits and asset valuation principles, and is a leading expert on the cost of capital. We have applied profitability analysis to many transport companies including bus operators, passenger train operators, rolling stock leasing companies, and airports.
  • Demand and revenue forecasting. We have made important contributions to the development of the rail demand and forecasting literatures, and have applied standard industry tools to generate demand forecasts in other studies. NERA also acts as an independent reviewer of both demand forecasts and forecasting methodologies for investors, government, and other transport sector clients.
  • Cost benefit and economic impact studies. NERA has carried out high-profile cost-benefit analyses, economic impact studies, and regulatory impact assessments for a wide range of transport sector clients. Many other projects have assessed the likely impacts of proposed new policies.
  • Cost modeling. We have carried out a wide range of cost modeling projects, including forecasts of input price changes and future efficiency improvements, analysis of detailed cost allocation principles, and simulating the take-up of new technologies.
Name Title Location Phone Email
Dr. Richard Hern Managing Director London
Berlin
+44 20 7659 8582
+49 30 700 1506 01
richard.hern@nera.com
Dr. Jeff D. Makholm Managing Director Boston +1 617 927 4540 jeff.makholm@nera.com
James Mellsop Managing Director Auckland
Wellington
Sydney
+64 9 928 3290
+64 4 819 2550
+61 2 8864 6536
james.mellsop@nera.com
Jeanne Lubek Director Paris +33 1 70 75 01 82 jeanne.lubek@nera.com
Daniel Radov Director London +44 20 7659 8744 daniel.radov@nera.com
Richard Druce Associate Director London +44 20 7659 8540 richard.druce@nera.com
Dr. Lewis Evans Affiliated Academic Wellington +64 4 474 1320 lew.evans@vuw.ac.nz
Michael Spackman Affiliated Consultant London +44 20 7659 8660 michael.spackman.affiliate@nera.com
Title Type Author
La Regulación de la Economía Colaborativa (Regulation of the Sharing Economy) Book By Bruno Soria
Representing International Business Impacts in Transport Appraisal Report By Michael Spackman et al.
The Evaluation of Major Local Authority Transport Projects: a Guide for DfT Report By Michael Spackman with former NERA Consultant Simon Maunder, former NERA Director John Dodgson, MVA, and David Simmonds Consultancy
CfIT's Initial Assessment Report on the 10 Year Transport Plan Report By Michael Spackman et al.
Title Date Type
NERA Economic Consulting Opens Office in Miami, Florida 14 November 2017 Press Release
Energy Economist Joins NERA Economic Consulting 13 July 2017 Press Release