Controlling for Macro/Behavior Changes During Volatile Times

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Lucy Allen led numerous projects addressing various issues that affected businesses during a time of substantial change and uncertainty. For example, Ms. Allen worked on cases that required estimating the impact of government restrictions on consumer spending while explicitly accounting for the various macroeconomic shifts that impacted businesses during COVID-19, such as changes in people’s activities and habits. In a recent insurance coverage dispute involving a property management company’s lost profits during the pandemic, Ms. Allen showed the company’s decline in profits was not due to COVID occurring on the premises and was therefore not covered by the insurance policy issued by her client. In another case, Ms. Allen analyzed a ski resort company’s data and macroeconomic trends to show most of the decline in business during the early months of the pandemic was caused by factors other than government restrictions, such as consumers’ behavioral changes.