In an article published in the September/October 2017 issue of the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, NERA Senior Consultant Dr. Garrett Glasgow and Managing Director and Co-Chair of the Environment Practice Dr. Anne E. Smith estimate the statistical uncertainty in calculations published by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their most recent Health Risk and Exposure Assessment (HREA) for Ozone. The EPA used an exposure–response function that was statistically estimated from clinical data to calculate point estimates of population-wide frequencies of lung function decrements due to ambient levels of ozone in US cities. This article applies an approach that estimates the statistical uncertainty present in these risk estimates, and also addresses model uncertainty in these risk estimates, which arises where there are different plausible ways to specify the relationship between pollution and health risk. An important use of these uncertainty estimates will be to test whether EPA’s estimated decreases in lung function risks from tightening ozone standards can be viewed as larger than the uncertainty in the estimation process. An advanced online copy of this article was made available on 20 July 2016.

Glasgow, Garrett, and Anne E. Smith. 2017.  “Uncertainty in the Estimated Risk of Lung Function Decrements Owing to Ozone Exposure.” Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology.  27(5): 535-538.