In “Will Economic Uncertainty and Growing Cost Pressures Lead to More Claims and Complicate the Calculation of Quantum?” published in Global Arbitration Review’s The Arbitration Review of the Americas 2026, Senior Managing Directors Julie Carey and Christian Dippon and Managing Directors Jorge Baez and Robert Patton analyze recent international arbitration cases and potential drivers of cross-border disputes in the Americas. The authors review key recent economic and geopolitical trends and comment on the potential effects of these trends on the volume and nature of future arbitrations and on the calculation of quantum.

The authors focus on economic trends in infrastructure projects and the mining sector, traditionally important sources of disputes. In the former, there remain immense cost pressures despite the post-pandemic easing of supply chain obstacles. With the sizeable scale of capital required for energy infrastructure projects, the lingering effects of the pandemic and the uncertainties brought forth by escalating global trade tensions continue to present a challenging environment for developers. The authors explain that managing these headwinds will be key to achieving country goals to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Mining projects face similar cost challenges. Moreover, environmental concerns have resulted in mining restrictions and moratoriums in some countries.

The authors also explore the challenges in completing new investment projects and questions about the extent to which the regulatory compact will protect investments in legacy fossil-generation facilities and mining projects have the potential to create new disputes, including in international arbitration.